Disaster threatens Istanbul in the form of the earthquake storm. Earthquakes were always thought to be random - but clues from Crete to California suggest otherwise. Geologist Geoff King, who predicted a storm that killed 25,000, claims it will strike next in the heart of Turkey.
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Science: Horizon 9.00pm BBC2
Forecasting where and when an earthquake will strike has never been a precise science but, according to this film, scientists have recently made a discovery that helps them to predict where the next disaster may happen. They believe that an "earthquake storm" is "blowing" across Turkey. If they're correct, the next earthquake will hit Istanbul, a city taking in around 10 million people. Unfortunately, they don't know when it might happen.
Seismologists suspect that one earthquake can trigger another (there's evidence that this happened in the Mediterranean area between 370 and 350 BC, and more recently - and more dramatically - in California in 1992). Certainly, studies of earthquakes in Turkey since 1939 appear to confirm it. They're moving westwards along the North Anatolian fault, like a set of falling dominoes.
A few years ago, Geoff King and a number of other geologists were convinced that the city of Izmit was next in line, although they couldn't say when. Tragically, their prediction caused only a ripple of interest, and the city was therefore unprepared for the disaster that struck in August 1999. The quake lasted only 45 seconds, but 25,000 people died.
Naturally, much of this programme deals with scientific fact, but this serves to highlight the personal stories of some of the survivors of the Izmit earthquake and make them all the more shocking. (Jane Rackham)