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More or Less: Why is it so hard to predict the outcome of competitions like the Premier League?

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Why is it so hard to predict the outcome of competitions like the Premier League?

12/08/2023 GMT

BBC World Service - More or Less, Why is it so hard to predict the outcome of competitions like the Premier League?

What variables do we look at when we try to predict the outcome of a sports competition?

This weekend, the most watched, the richest and the most star-studded football competition on earth returns for another season. It is, of course, the English Premier League, and whilst the pre-season chatter has focused mostly on the trials, tribulations and transfers of players and managers, there’s a longer-game being played in the background - that of predicting the winners, losers and also-rans come the seasons’ end.

As we speak, data analyst are gathering up mounds of stats on player performance, past results etc, all of which are then fed into algorithms and forecasting models with a view to generating a team’s percentage chance of coming out on top. But even with all of that at their disposal, the margin for error is significant / enormous. So, why is it so hard to predict the outcome of competitions like the Premier League? 

In this programme, Head Analyst from Nielsen Gracenote, Simon Gleave, reveals the variables that count when calculating future outcomes in football, and the dead-end leads that don’t. He also tells us why it’s easier to pinpoint winners in some sports over others. 


Presenter: Paul Connolly
Producer: Natasha Fernandes
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Co-ordinators: Debbie Richford and Janet Staples
Sound Engineer: Graham Puddifoot

Image: Premier League Trophy, Credit: Carl Recine/Reuters

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