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Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life

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More or Less: Simpson’s Paradox: How to make vaccinated death figures misleading

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The Simpsons

28/11/2021 GMT

Simpson’s Paradox: How to make vaccinated death figures misleading

BBC World Service - More or Less, Simpson’s Paradox: How to make vaccinated death figures misleading

How a statistical phenomenon can make data misleading.

Vaccines are the best way to stop deaths and serious cases related to covid19, this is an irrefutable fact. However, recent ONS data seems to show that vaccinated people had a higher all cause death rate than unvaccinated people. Why is this data misleading? Here’s a clue: it’s to do with a quirky statistical phenomenon called Simpsons Paradox.


(Image: The Simpsons/TCFFC )

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