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Talking Business: 04/09/2021 GMT

04/09/2021 GMT

BBC News - Talking Business, 04/09/2021 GMT

What if we could see costly future global events coming and prepare for them.

Aaron Heslehurst speaks to Michele Wucker who coined the term "gray rhino" and John Neal, The CEO of Lloyd's of London, about why we're so bad at predicting future economic shocks.

The dot com boom cost the US economy an estimated 1.8 trillion dollars, the pandemic a staggering 16 trillion dollars and the global financial crisis an eye watering  22 trillion. Many have dubbed these events 'black swans' - incredibly rare occurrences that are impossibly difficult to predict. In fact, short of having a crystal ball many would say that even trying to predict the future is a fools errand - but what if isn't wasn't. What if we could see costly future global events coming and prepare for them. Well there are those that argue that this is in fact entirely possible and we don't need a time machine or super computer to do it - we just need to look out for the so called Gray rhino's in front of us -

Aaron Heslehurst speaks to Michele Wucker who coined the term "gray rhino" and John Neal, The Chief Executive of Lloyd's of London, about why we're so bad at predicting future economic shocks.

Also in the show, The boss of one of the world's biggest wine makers, Accolade Wines, joins us to discuss bottled up demand for wine post pandemic.

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