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Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life

Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life.

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More or Less: Jab fears explained: a base rate fallacy

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Israel’s jab fears: a base rate fallacy

07/08/2021 GMT

Jab fears explained: a base rate fallacy

BBC World Service - More or Less, Jab fears explained: a base rate fallacy

Why increasing Covid infections amongst the vaccinated isn’t necessarily bad news.

Why increasing numbers of Covid infections among the vaccinated can be explained by a statistical phenomenon.

As some countries rapidly roll out vaccination programmes, there have been concerns that increases in infection rates amongst vaccinated groups mean vaccines are less effective than we hoped, especially in the face of the feared Delta variant.

Epidemiologist Dr Katelyn Jetelina from the University of Texas Health Science Centre School of Public Health explains why this isn’t what the numbers show – rather than decreasing vaccine effectiveness, increasing rates can be explained by a statistical phenomenon known as ‘base rate fallacy’. 

Presenter: Charlotte McDonald

Producer: Nathan Gower

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