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Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life

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22/09/2018 GMT

Trump and the Puerto Rico Death Toll

BBC World Service - More or Less, Trump and the Puerto Rico Death Toll

How can we calculate excess mortality after a natural disaster?

On the 20 September 2017 Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, a self-governing overseas territory of the United States. George Washington University has published a report – commissioned by the Puerto Rican government – claiming that the hurricane accounted for nearly 3,000 deaths in Puerto Rico. President Trump disputed these official figures, tweeting that the Democrats were inflating the death toll to "make me look as bad as possible". So, who is right, and how do you determine who died as a result of a natural disaster? We look at what is meant by the term ‘excess death’ and whether Hurricane Maria was less deadly than the 2005 Hurricane Katrina which officials say claimed 1,833 lives. Tim Harford speaks to Dr Carlos Santos-Burgoa lead investigator of the George Washington University report to find out whose numbers add up.

Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Presenter: Tim Harford

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