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Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics used in everyday life

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

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More or Less: Forecasting rain, Teabags, Voter ID trials

Factual

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25/05/2018

Forecasting rain, Teabags, Voter ID trials

BBC Radio 4 - More or Less, Forecasting rain, Teabags, Voter ID trials

How to read the weather forecast, plus measuring the amount of tea we drink.

What does the rain percentage mean? And how diverse are the most recent undergraduates to start at one of the country's top universities? We take a look.

What does the rain percentage mean?

With weather being the national obsession, More or Less has received a number of weather-related emails - specifically about the BBC's weather app. This was updated earlier this year, and it now includes an hour by hour breakdown telling users what chance there is of it raining wherever they are - but what does this percentage actually mean? Tim Harford speaks to meteorologist Nikki Berry from Metrogroup, which provides the BBC's weather forecast analysis. 

University of Oxford admissions statistics

How diverse are the most recent undergraduates to start at one of the country's top universities? We take a look.

Waiting for the facts on Voter ID trials

In the recent local elections in England there were five authorities taking part in a trial, requiring voters to show ID for the first time when they turned up at the polling station. In the initial days after the vote it was reported that up to 4,000 people were turned away and couldn't vote because they didn't have identification. But now, Newsnight's David Grossman has collected the data from the trial areas to discover the original estimate was out by a factor of 10.

Counting teabags

How much tea do we drink? A figure that is often quoted suggests that Brits drink 165 million cups of tea a day which works out as around 60 billion a year. We take a look at what evidence is available and whether it is possible to calculate such a statistic.

Are pensioners richer than workers?

A More or Less listener heard a claim that the average income for pensioners is higher than the average income for people of working age - is that true? Jonathan Cribb from the Institute for Fiscal Studies has an answer.

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