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Factual: Arts, Culture & the Media

Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics used in everyday life

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

BBC Radio 4 LW

More or Less: How wrong were the Brexit forecasts?

Factual

How wrong were the Brexit forecasts?

09/12/2016

BBC Radio 4 - More or Less, How wrong were the Brexit forecasts?

The economic doom that never was; childhood cancer figures and Ed Balls

The economic doom that never was; childhood cancer figures and Ed Balls.

Before the EU referendum a number of serious and weighty organisations published research on what they thought would be the economic consequences of a vote to Leave. Since then, they have come under criticism for being unduly pessimistic. We take a look at what was said before the referendum, and how the economy is looking now. In the run up to the vote Tim Harford spoke to Chris Giles of the Financial Times and Andrew Lilico of the consultancy, Europe Economics. We invited them back to discuss

Ed Balls
Did the former MP get more votes at a general election or performing on the BBC show Strictly Come Dancing? We wanted badly to answer our listener’s question but we struggled to get to the truth.

Is modern life really killing our children?
Is modern life really killing our children?
Earlier in the year there were many headlines about cancer in children and young people having risen 40%. The Telegraph headlined their piece ‘Modern Life is Killing Our Children’ stating that air pollution, powerlines, pesticides  and poor diets were possible causes of the rise. The piece was based on work by a charity Children with Cancer UK. But as we’ve discovered the numbers are deceptive and they’ve been dismissed as scaremongering. Is modern life killing our children? – no, more like it’s saving them.

The economics of dining couples
Imagine you’re out to dinner with a date. You’re looking at the menu thinking about what you will have. Now you may not immediately think that economics could play a part in explaining what happens next, but Megan McArdle has been thinking about just that. She’s the author of The Upside of Down and a columnist at Bloomberg View. She says that couples – and indeed she and her husband – go through four stages of how they choose their food. 

How risky is the contraceptive pill?
Many of the potential side effects of the pill, such as blood clots, have been well documented since its release in the 1960s. And now, a study has claimed to have established a link between depression and the pill. But perhaps the main risk women face is poorly interpreted statistics.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Image: Tourists in Parliament Square, Westminster/Credit Getty

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