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Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life

Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life.

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Predicting Olympic Medals

05/08/2016 GMT

BBC World Service - More or Less, Predicting Olympic Medals

What makes a country successful at winning gold, silver and bronze?

How can we use statistics to predict how many medals each nation will win? We speak to Dr Julia Bredtmann, an economist at the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. She has come up with a model to predict how many medals each country will win, along with her colleagues, Sebastian Otten, also from the Leibniz Institute, and Carsten Crede of the University of East Anglia.

Some countries like the US and China have a large population and GDP, but a number of countries do very well for their size and wealth. Julia explains the different factors you have to consider to predict Olympic success.

(Image: Lagoa Stadium - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Credit: Reuters)

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