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Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life

Tim Harford explains the numbers and statistics in the news and in life.

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More or Less: Is the Kenyan election already decided?

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A poster detailing the Kenyan voting procedure

01/03/2013

Is the Kenyan election already decided?

BBC World Service - More or Less, Is the Kenyan election already decided?

Do Kenyans vote along ethnic lines? More Or Less investigates.

There are more registered voters from the ethnic groups that are likely to support Kenyatta than those for his rival Raila Odinga. Do Kenyans vote along ethnic lines?

Kenya votes for its next President on 4 March 2013 and while the opinion polls show that it is neck-and-neck between the two main candidates an influential Kenyan political scientists has warned that the polls are wrong. 

Mutahi Ngunyi’s predicting a win for Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Coalition because of what he describes as 'the tyranny of numbers' - there are simply more registered voters from the ethnic groups that are likely to support Kenyatta than those for his rival Raila Odinga. But what is the evidence – do Kenyans vote along ethnic lines – Ruth Alexander speaks to Dr Tom Wolf from pollsters – Ipsos-Synovate in Kenya to find out.

Also, was the Pope the subject of divine intervention when lightning struck St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican just after he announced he was stepping down? Or was it just a coincidence. More or Less looks at the chances of this occurring with the help of Matthew Waldrum from lightning protection specialists Omega Red and Graeme Anderson from the UK’s Met Office.

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Is the Kenyan election already decided?

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